Article · junio 11, 2026
Setting Realistic Yield Targets in Times of Fertilizer Scarcity
With fertilizer shortages, rising input costs, and tighter farm budgets, setting realistic yield targets is more important than ever. ATLAS helps estimate how much crops can realistically produce under local conditions by using climate, soil, and management data.
Setting realistic yield targets is becoming increasingly important in today’s agricultural context, marked by fertilizer shortages, rising input costs, and tighter farm budgets. Under these conditions, improving the efficiency of nutrient management is no longer only an economic priority but also a key component of sustainable crop production.
One of the biggest challenges farmers and agronomists face is determining how much yield can realistically be achieved under specific environmental and management conditions. Applying fertilizers based on unrealistic expectations can lead to unnecessary costs, lower profitability, and inefficient use of resources. On the other hand, underestimating crop potential may limit productivity and reduce opportunities to optimize production systems.
This is where the Yield Potential and Yield Gap Atlas (ATLAS) plays a critical role.
ATLAS estimates yield potential for major crops across agricultural regions worldwide by integrating agronomic, climatic, soil, and management data. Yield potential represents the yield that a crop can achieve under optimal management, without limitations from nutrients, and no yield reductions due to pests or diseases. By comparing this potential with actual farm yields, researchers can identify yield gaps and better understand the factors limiting productivity.
These estimates provide an essential foundation for setting realistic yield targets at both field and regional scales. For systems where farmers have access to markets, inputs, and technical information, reaching 70% to 80% of the yield potential is a realistic goal to maximize return on investment. In turn, realistic yield targets help guide more informed farm decisions, particularly regarding fertilizer applications and nutrient management strategies.
In periods of fertilizer scarcity or high fertilizer prices, the ability to align nutrient inputs with attainable crop yields becomes especially valuable. Rather than relying on blanket recommendations, farmers and advisors can use yield potential information, together with their field history, to optimize fertilizer use according to local conditions, prices, and expected productivity levels.
Beyond nutrient management, realistic yield targets also support:
* Better economic planning
* Improved risk management
* More efficient resource allocation
* Enhanced environmental sustainability
* Reduced nutrient losses and environmental impact
At a global scale, ATLAS contributes to a broader understanding of agricultural productivity and food system sustainability by generating standardized and science-based estimates across crops, countries, and production systems.
As agriculture continues to face increasing pressure from climate variability, input shortages, and the need to sustainably increase food production, tools that help improve decision-making through data-driven agronomy will become increasingly important.
Understanding what crops can realistically produce — and the factors preventing them from reaching that potential — is essential for building more productive, efficient, and resilient agricultural systems.